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A It is difficult to conceive of vigorous economic growth without an efficient transport system. A 我们很难设想一个蓬勃发展的经济体离开有效的运输系统将会怎样。 Although modern information technologies can reduce the demand for physical transport by facilitating teleworking and teleservices, the requirement for transport continues to increase. 尽管现代的信息技术通过使远程办公和电信业务简易化从而减少我们对于运输的需求，但是运输的要求却依然在增加。 There are two key factors behind this trend. 在这个趋势的背后有两个关键性因素。 For passenger transport, the determining factor is the spectacular growth in car use. 对于客运来说，决定性因素是汽车使用量的惊人增长。 The number of cars on European Union (EU) roads saw an increase of three million cars each year from 1990 to 2010, and in the next decade the EU will see a further substantial increase in its fleet. 欧盟见证了汽车使用量在1990 年至2010 年间以每年300 万量的速度增长，而船舶的增长数量在下一个十年也将非常可观。

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B As far as goods transport is concerned, growth is due to a large extent to changes in the European economy and its system of production: In the last 20 years, as internal frontiers have been abolished, the EU has moved from a ‘stock’ economy to a ‘flow’ economy. B 就商品运输而言，其增长源自于欧洲经济及产品体制的大量变化。在过去的20 年间，随着内部边界的废止，欧盟从以“囤积”为主的经济转变为具有“流动性”的经济。 This phenomenon has been emphasised by the relocation of some industries, particularly those which are labour intensive, to reduce production costs, even though the production site is hundreds or even thousands of kilometers away from the final assembly plant or away from users. 这种现象通过一些产业的迁移表现得非常明显，尤其是那些需要密集型劳动力的产业，目的是减少产品成本，虽然产品生产地点与最终装配的工厂和顾客相距上百公里甚至上千公里。

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C The strong economic growth expected in countries which are candidates for entry to the EU will also increase transport flows, in particular road haulage traffic. C欧盟候选国的可预期的强有力的经济增长也将加强运输的效率，尤其是公路货运业。 In 1998, some of these countries already exported more than twice their 1990 volumes and imported more than five times their 1990 volumes. 对于一些这样的国家，它们的出口量在1998 年超过了1990 年的两倍，而进口量则达到了五倍以上。 And although many candidate countries inherited a transport system which encourages rail, the distribution between modes has tipped sharply in favour of road transport since the 1990s. 尽管一些候选国继承了以铁路为主的运输系统，但是这种运输模式的分布从20 世纪90 年代起已经剧烈地向公路运输倾斜 Between 1990 and 1998, road haulage increased by 19.4%, while during the same period rail haulage decreased by 43.5%, although - and this could benefit the enlarged EU - it is still on average at a much higher level than in existing member states. 在1990 年到1998 年之间，他们的公路运输量增长了19.4%， 然而在同一时期，铁路运输却下降了43.5%，尽管如此，对于扩大后的欧盟这依然将是有益的——平均值高于已有成员国的情况。

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D However, a new imperative - sustainable development - offers an opportunity for adapting the EU's common transport policy. D 然而，一个新的必要的——可持续发展——提供了一个机会以适应欧盟的运输政策。 This objective, agreed by the Gothenburg European Council, has to be achieved by integrating environmental considerations into Community policies, and shifting the balance between modes of transport lies at the heart of its strategy. 这个被哥德堡欧盟理事会所认可的目标是不得不通过将环境因素的考量融合进共同体的政策，以及通过平衡策略根本的运输模式来达到。 The ambitious objective can only be fully achieved by 2020, but proposed measures are nonetheless a first essential step towards a sustainable transport system which will ideally be in place in 30 years' time, that is by 2040. 这个极富雄心的目标只有到2020 年才能完全达到，但是被提议的措施仍然是达到可持续运输体系的必需的一步，这种运输体系在30 年内，也就是2040 年将会达到适当的位置。

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E In 1998, energy consumption in the transport sector was to blame for 28% of emissions of CO2, the leading greenhouse gas. E在1998 年，运输领域的能源消耗每年需要为CO2——产生温室效应的主要气体——排放量的28% 负责。 According to the latest estimates, if nothing is done to reverse the traffic growth trend, CO2 emissions from transport can be expected to increase by around 50% to 1,113 billion tonnes by 2020, compared with the 739 billion tonnes recorded in 1990. 根据最新估计，如果我们对于抑制交通增长趋势不作为，运输中CO2 的排放量预期会增长50%，从1990 年的所记录的739, 000, 000, 000 吨达到2020 年的1, 113, 000, 000, 000 吨。 Once again, road transport is the main culprit since it alone accounts for 84% of the CO2 emissions attributable to transport. 再一次，公路交通将成为CO2 排放的主要原因，因为它自己占据了由交通引起的CO2 排放量的84%。 Using alternative fuels and improving energy efficiency is thus both an ecological necessity and a technological challenge. 使用可替代能源以及提高能源的使用效率既是生态发展的必然要求也是对科学技术的挑战。

F At the same time greater efforts must be made to achieve a modal shift. F 同时，我们还需要更大的努力来实现模式的转换。 Such a change cannot be achieved overnight, all the less so after over half a century of constant deterioration in favour of road. 这样的变化并非一夜之间就可以达到的，这将导致半个多世纪以来以公路为主的运输系统变化不大。 This has reached such a pitch that today rail freight services are facing marginalisation, with just 8% of market share, and with international goods trains struggling along at an average speed of 18km/h. 它已经达到了这样的一个最高点以至于今天的铁路运输服务正面临着边缘化，只占有8% 的市场份额，并且国际运输商品的火车尽最大努力达到平均速度每小时18 千米。 Three possible options have emerged. 三种可能的选择出现了。

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G The first approach would consist of focusing on road transport solely through pricing. G第一种方法是只依靠于公路运输上的定价。 This option would not be accompanied by complementary measures in the other modes of transport. 这个方法将不伴随着其他运输模式里的补充措施。 In the short term it might curb the growth in road transport through the better loading ratio of goods vehicles and occupancy rates of passenger vehicles expected as a result of the increase in the price of transport. 从短期来看，它可能会通过较为合理的商品车辆的装货比率和乘客车辆的占有率来限制公路运输的增长。而这两种比率是运输价格增长的结果。 However, the lack of measures available to revitalise other modes of transport would make it impossible for more sustainable modes of transport to take up the baton. 然而，缺乏使其他运输模式恢复元气的措施，将导致可持续发展的运输模式无法接过增长的接力棒。

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H The second approach also concentrates on road transport pricing but is accompanied by measures to increase the efficiency of the other modes (better quality of services, logistics, technology). H第二种方法也集中在公路运输的定价，但会伴随着能够使其他运输模式增长的措施（例如较好的服务质量、物流和科技）。 However, this approach does not include investment in new infrastructure, nor does it guarantee better regional cohesion. 然而，这种方法不包括对基础设施的投资，也不能够保证较好的区域联系。 It could help to achieve greater uncoupling than the first approach, but road transport would keep the lion's share of the market and continue to concentrate on saturated arteries, despite being the most polluting of the modes. 和第一种方法相比，它将会帮助实现更明显的分解，尽管公路运输在运输模式中污染性最强，它仍将保持最大的市场份额并且继续集中在饱和了的干线上。 It is therefore not enough to guarantee the necessary shift of the balance. 因此它很难保证平衡上的必要的转换。

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I The third approach, which is not new, comprises a series of measures ranging from pricing to revitalising alternative modes of transport and targeting investment in the trans-European network. I 第三种方法并不是新的，包含从定价到使可替代运输模式起死回生以及跨欧洲网络的定向投资等一系列方法。 This integrated approach would allow the market shares of the other modes to return to their 1998 levels and thus make a shift of balance. 这种整合了的方法将会允许其他模式的市场份额回到1998 年的水平，并且实现运输转换的平衡。 It is far more ambitious than it looks, bearing in mind the historical imbalance in favour of roads for the last fifty years, but would achieve a marked break in the link between road transport growth and economic growth, without placing restrictions on the mobility of people and goods. 说起来容易做起来难，需要记住的是在上一个五十年里支持公路运输而导致的历史性的不平衡，但是它将在不对人口和商品的流动性做出限制的条件下，达到公路运输增长和经济增长之间联系的明显的隔断。