[C8T1P3]Telepathy
Since the 1970s, parapsychologists at leading
universities and research institutes around the world have risked the derision
of sceptical colleagues by putting the various claims for telepathy to the test
in dozens of rigorous scientific studies.
自从20 世纪70 年代以来,全世界顶级大学及研究机构中的超心理学家们就冒着被对他们的持怀疑态度的同事嘲笑的风险进行着一系列的工作,从提出不同的关于心灵感应的主张到开展很多缜密的科学研究。
The results and their
implications are dividing even the researchers who uncovered them.
而这些工作结果及其暗示却将哪怕是发现这一现象的学者们也分化开来。
Some researchers say the results constitute compelling
evidence that telepathy is genuine.
一些研究者说研究结果包括了一些令人信服的证据来说明心灵感应是真实的。
Other parapsychologists believe the
field is on the brink of collapse, having tried to produce definitive
scientific proof and failed.
其他超心理学家相信这一领域正处在崩溃的边缘,他们试图寻找一些绝对性的科学证据去进行证明,不过他们失败了。
Sceptics and advocates alike do concur on one
issue, however: that the most impressive evidence so far has come from the
so-called ’ganzfeld’ experiments, a German term that means ’whole
field1.
怀疑论者和他们的支持者们赞同这一点:到目前为止,最有力的证据是被称为“ganzfeld”的试验,这个词语在德语中的意思是“全部区域”。
Reports of telepathic experiences had by people during meditation
led parapsychologists to suspect that telepathy might involve ’signals’ passing between people that were so
faint that they were usually swamped by normal brain activity.
通过了解在冥想中有过心灵感应经历的人的报告,超心理学家们猜测心灵感应发生时可能在人与人之间存在信号传递,不过由于这种信号太微弱而经常被淹没在正常的脑部活动中。
In this
case, such signals might be more easily detected by those experiencing
meditation-like tranquillity in a relaxing ’whole
field' of light, sound and warmth.
在这种情况下,当人们在灯光、音乐及温暖等平静的“全部区域”环境下进行冥想时,这种信号会更容易被监测到。
The ganzfeld experiment tries to recreate these
conditions with participants sitting in soft reclining chairs in a sealed room,
listening to relaxing sounds while their eyes are covered with special filters
letting in only soft pink light.
全部区域试验试图重新创造这些条件:让受试者在一间封闭的房间中坐在柔软的卧椅上,聆听舒适的音乐,眼部戴上特殊的眼罩从而只有粉光能够进入等。
In early ganzfeld experiments, the
telepathy test involved identification of a picture chosen from a random
selection of four taken from a large image bank.
在早期的全部区域试验中,心灵感应测试包括对从一个大型图片库中随机抽取四张图片中的一张进行识别。
The idea was that a person
acting as a ’sender’ would attempt to beam the image over to the ’receiver’ relaxing in the sealed room.
这个测试的想法是一个充当发送者的人尝试将图片发送给在封闭屋子内处于放松状态的接收者。
Once the session was over, this person
was asked to identify which of the four images had been used.
当这一过程结束后,接收者会被问到他识别出了这四张图片中的哪一张,
Random
guessing would give a hit-rate of 25 per cent; if telepathy is real, however,
the hit-rate would be higher.
随机猜测的概率是25%,而如果心灵感应存在的话,无论如何,这个概率都会高一些。
In 1982, the results from the first ganzfeld
studies were analysed by one of its pioneers, the American parapsychologist
Charles Honorton.
在1982 年,全部区域试验的先锋者,也是进行第一个试验的人美国超心理学家Charles Honorton 得出了这个结论。
They pointed to typical hit-rates of better than 30 per
cent - a small effect, but one which statistical tests suggested could not be
put down to chance.
他们得到了一个高于30% 的数据,虽然只是一个小小的成绩,但统计试验证明这并不是碰运气。
The implication was that the ganzfeld method had revealed
real evidence for telepathy.
这暗示着全部区域方法揭示了心灵感应是存在的。
But there was a crucial flaw in this argument — one routinely
overlooked in more conventional areas of science.
但这个在传统科学领域中经常被忽视的争议存在一个严重的缺陷。
Just because chance had
been ruled out as an explanation did not prove telepathy must exist; there were
many other ways of getting positive results.
仅仅由于这种解释排除了偶然因素并不能证明心灵感应肯定存在,有许多其他办法能够得到正面的结果。
These ranged from ’ sensory leakage' - where clues about the pictures accidentally reach
the receiver - to outright fraud.
从接收者偶然了解到图片线索的“感官泄漏”到全面的欺骗,
In response, the researchers issued a
review of all the ganzfeld studies done up to 1985 to show that 80 per cent had
found statistically significant evidence.
研究者们发布了一个到1985 年为止所有全部区域研究的报告称发现了80% 的统计意义上的重要证据。
However, they also agreed that
there were still too many problems in the experiments which could lead to
positive results, and they drew up a list demanding new standards for future
research.
不过他们也同意试验中有许多问题能够引致正面的结果,并且他们为将来的研究列出了一个新的标准。
After this, many researchers switched to autoganzfeld tests
- an automated variant of the technique which used computers to perform many of
the key tasks such as the random selection of images.
在这以后,许多研究者转向自动全部区域测试,这种测试通过电脑中不同的自动化技术执行很多关键任务如挑选图片来完成试验。
By minimizing human
involvement, the idea was to minimize the risk of flawed results.
这种试验减少人类的参与度,也减少了在结果中出现缺陷的风险。
In 1987,
results from hundreds of autoganzfeld tests were studied by Honorton in a ‘meta-analysis’,a statistical technique for finding the overall results from a set
of studies.
在1987 年,Honorton 通过一项运用统计方法从研究中寻求全面结论的“后续分析”的试验,从上百个自动全部区域试验中得到了结论,
Though less compelling than before, the outcome was still
impressive.
尽管不像以前那样有说服力,可结果还是很令人惊讶的。
Yet some parapsychologists remain disturbed by the lack
of consistency between individual ganzfeld studies.
不过一些超心理学家还是对个体全部区域试验的不稳定显得很烦乱。
Defenders of telepathy
point out that demanding impressive evidence from every study ignores one basic
statistical fact: it takes large samples to detect small effects.
心灵感应的支持者们指出在每一个试验中都要求有说服力的证据缺乏一个基本的统计事实:因为它需要非常多的样本来检测很小的效果。
If, as
current results suggest, telepathy produces hit-rates only marginally above the
25 per cent expected by chance, it’s unlikely to be detected by a typical
ganzfeld study involving around 40 people: the group is just not big enough.
而正如现在结果所示,心灵感应的随机成功率只是25% 多一点。 而这不像做一个40 人的全部区域试验所检测到的:因为人数太少了。
Only when many studies are combined in a meta-analysis will the faint signal of
telepathy really become apparent.
只有在“后续分析”中做足够多的试验微弱的心灵感应信号才会变得更明显。
And that is what researchers do seem to
be finding.
这也正是学者们正在寻求的东西。
What they are certainly not finding, however, is any
change in attitude of mainstream scientists: most still totally reject the very
idea of telepathy.
而他们并没有寻求主流科学家们态度上的转变:这些人中的绝大部分还是全然抗拒心灵感应的理论。
The problem stems at least in part from the lack of any
plausible mechanism for telepathy.
这在某种程度上是基于心灵感应缺乏可信的机制。
Various theories have been put forward, many focusing on
esoteric ideas from theoretical physics.
不同的理论仍在前进,一些着重于理论物理中的神秘方法。
They include ’ quantum entanglement1,
in which events affecting one group of atoms instantly affect another group, no
matter how far apart they may be.
包括“ 量子纠缠”,即无论它们相隔多远,事件影响一组原子时会即时影响另外一组原子。
While physicists have demonstrated
entanglement with specially prepared atoms, no-one knows if it also exists
between atoms making up human minds.
当物理学家们描述到与准备好的特殊的原子进行纠缠时,没人知道这是否也存在于人类思想中的原子。
Answering such questions would
transform parapsychology.
回答这类问题将改变超心理学。
This has prompted some researchers to argue that
the future lies not in collecting more evidence for telepathy, but in probing
possible mechanisms.
这也促使了一些研究者去讨论心灵感应的未来并不在于收集更多的证据,而是寻找更有可能性的机制。
Some work has begun already, with researchers trying
to identify people who are particularly successful in autoganzfeld trials.
一些研究者已经开始了确认在自动全部区域测试中成功参与的人们的工作。
Early results show that creative and artistic people do much better than
average: in one study at the University of Edinburgh, musicians achieved a
hit-rate of 56 per cent.
早期结果显示有想法和有艺术性的人会比一般人表现得更好:在一项爱丁堡大学进行的试验中,音乐家们的成功率是56%。
Perhaps more tests like these will eventually give
the researchers the evidence they are seeking and strengthen the case for the
existence of telepathy.
也许更多这样的试验最终会为研究者带来他们寻找的证据以及增强心灵感应的存在性。